Piper Jaffray says Android beats iOS in five years

[wrecklass]

Try a Mac before you pass judgement.

Try it first huh? Nice argument. So let me lay em out for ya kid:

March 1984, I bought my first Macintosh in what was called the first 100 days. I wrote programming articles for MacUser magazine. I wrote articles on using Macs in numerous other magazines. I developed software for the Mac for years. I interviewed Andy Herzfield and Guy Kawasaki. Look em up if you are too young.

By 1995 I had a MacPlus, Mac IIc, Mac Duo, and even lugged around an original Mac Portable for months. I oversaw the development of Macintosh software at a fortune 100 company. Until 1995 when I realized the Mac had lost the market and the tools were all on Windows. I reluctantly told my team to go to Windows 95 for our big project that year.

I've used OS X which is a nice version of Unix, but not what I choose to spend my time developing on these days. Market share does matter.

So have I passed your excellent test of trying a Macintosh, son?

 

[col.bris]

Getting back to the issue the long and short of it is 5 years is a long time in IT frankly no one can predict what will come along and whom will do what. Does it really matter I too started in 1978 with my first Apple 11 at that time no one could even imagine a product like a Macplus. 5 years ago it was blackberry, nokia sony in mobile phones. Now it Is a different line up. Who knows what is coming and yes android is growing as it will be on multiple devices and so is Apple although locked to Apple devices is also growing. The point is its competition and thats healthy. Who is to say Sony or some one else will come out with something totally different to the above.within 5 years that will blow all away so in summary. Smile enjoy what you have it is only the beginning.

Col.Bris

Before some one calls me son I am 66 lol

 

[iVan]

That five year extrapolation is clear misjudgment. Do you really expect Apple to just sit there and do nothing? Apple evolves as every other and they often take the first steps or are the first out of the gate with near perfect products. When they smell competition they just up the tempo.

Does anyone have an idea of what they're up to in the back shops? I expect to see huge jumps in cloud usage, the iPad being a first step. What next?

 

[col.bris]

That five year extrapolation is clear misjudgment. Do you really expect Apple to just sit there and do nothing? Apple evolves as every other and they often take the first steps or are the first out of the gate with near perfect products. When they smell competition they just up the tempo.

Does anyone have an idea of what they're up to in the back shops? I expect to see huge jumps in cloud usage, the iPad being a first step. What next?

Exactly that is what I was getting at 5 years.....come on no one can predict what will be around by then and as Ivan stated regardless at what others roll out one can guarantee that Apple has a lot more up their sleeve than one can even imagine

 

[wrecklass]

Do I think Apple will stand still for five years? No.

Do I think Piper Jaffray took that into account? Absolutely.

They are an investment bank, they make a living telling people what they expect to see happen in the next few years. They help investors figure out where to put their money. No doubt they are occasionally wrong, but I seriously doubt they make predictions like this without giving it a lot of thought. And I am sure they don't make these kinds of predictions without looking at business plans and strategies.

Given that I was surprised they made such a bold prediction given Apple's meteoric rise in the smartphone market over the last few years. They don't make these kinds of statements for headlines. Headlines don't make money for Investment Banks.

They give advice to investors.

Given this analysis, I just found it very interesting and a bit alarming for Apple.

Bear in mind that in little over a year Google has essentially caught up with Apple on smart phone market share.

Do you think they took that into account?
Don't you think that is alarming to Apple?

 

[muyoso]

That five year extrapolation is clear misjudgment. Do you really expect Apple to just sit there and do nothing? Apple evolves as every other and they often take the first steps or are the first out of the gate with near perfect products. When they smell competition they just up the tempo.

Does anyone have an idea of what they're up to in the back shops? I expect to see huge jumps in cloud usage, the iPad being a first step. What next?

They better up their game in the "cloud" usage, because they are SERIOUSLY behind pretty much every other mobile OS out there. The fact that I have to plug in to iTunes to accomplish ANY task with the iPad is horrendous. Can't even subscribe to a podcast without going through iTunes on a computer. That is ridiculous.

 

[broganmc]

Bear in mind that in little over a year Google has essentially caught up with Apple on smart phone market share.

Do you think they took that into account?
Don't you think that is alarming to Apple?

Google's Android has one luxury Apple does not. Google open-sourced their OS so it is not locked to one particular cellular carrier. The AT&T exclusive deal is what is holding iOS back and giving Android a leg up. But if Apple breaks free of AT&T and is able to sell a smartphone that can work on any network, they have a huge competitive advantage. I think they realize that given their development of the iPod Touch, a device that is a smartphone save for the locked-in contract plan.

Keep in mind Android suffers from the same thing Linux did in its Windows battle. (Remember when open-source Linux was going to kill the big bad Microsoft?) By being open source it is free to be bastardized by the commercial partners who co-opt its source code for the non-geek consumer. So instead of one unified source for development dictating the basic user experience you have a fiefdom of rival manufacturing and cellular chieftoms. Meanwhile Apple maintains its Emerald City unifying hardware and software into a quality user experience. The user experience, in this case, being hampered by the cellular carrier's offerings.

The next big thing will be mobile videoconferencing. Apple's clearly aware of it, hence their inclusion of Face Time in their iPhone and iPodTouch devices (most likely also in the iPad 2.0 next year). Video demands more bandwidth and that is a direct threat to those old carrier caps. (Seriously 2GB cap on AT&T?!) So I'm following 4G network development (have you seen what Clear is doing in partnership with Sprint and Comcast?) and Verizon's plans to see who wins the provider war.

If Apple can make their iOS devices available carrier-independent at an affordable price then they'll become the Microsoft to Google's Linux-ness. (Compare plans for Samsung's touted Galaxy Pad. Expected $200-300 with a locked in 2 yr carrier plan and $1000 without. That's a deathknell for the device right there. The iPad is far cheaper to purchase in that competition.)

I say this being mostly an outsider to the Mac world. I never liked Mac desktops or laptops. I'm strictly a Windows girl. My reason being one of cost and efficiency. I could get more done with a Windows machine within the same budget. The one thing that has kept me away from the smartphone market altogether is the mandatory contract plans with carriers. But being able to purchase an iOS in the form factor of a usable iPad (I own several win netbooks as well for comparison) or iPodTouch has led me to jump. I'm most disappointed to see the Android tablets offered up immediately tied to a very limited, locked-in cellular contract system. That kills my interest, no matter how good the specs of devices.

I'm sure there are several consumers like me who prefer unfettered network-ready devices. Heck, let me pay-as-I-go for a mobile broadband signal and chose whatever carrier I want that month and I can use my equipment to the fullest. Especially as I my mobile devices become more computer-like and my communication relies on cloud-sources.

 

[gentlefury]

Try a Mac before you pass judgement.

Try it first huh? Nice argument. So let me lay em out for ya kid:

March 1984, I bought my first Macintosh in what was called the first 100 days. I wrote programming articles for MacUser magazine. I wrote articles on using Macs in numerous other magazines. I developed software for the Mac for years. I interviewed Andy Herzfield and Guy Kawasaki. Look em up if you are too young.

By 1995 I had a MacPlus, Mac IIc, Mac Duo, and even lugged around an original Mac Portable for months. I oversaw the development of Macintosh software at a fortune 100 company. Until 1995 when I realized the Mac had lost the market and the tools were all on Windows. I reluctantly told my team to go to Windows 95 for our big project that year.

I've used OS X which is a nice version of Unix, but not what I choose to spend my time developing on these days. Market share does matter.

So have I passed your excellent test of trying a Macintosh, son?

Well, since OSX is a complete re-write and completely different than any other version I would say no. To have never professionally used it means you basically haven't used a mac...thats like saying, I have plenty of experience with win95....that means I know all about win7.

I use to use IRIX way back when on SGI machines....does that make me special?

 

[col.bris]

We are lucky in Australia buy outright no plan use pre pay multiple carriers hence iPhone is number 1 in saying that australias population would fill greater LA at 27 million oh for got plus 40 million kangaroos lol

 

[Prasius]

Bear in mind that in little over a year Google has essentially caught up with Apple on smart phone market share.

I've seen this statement in a few places, yet haven't seen the sales figures broken down by country to back this up. I'm not saying you're wrong, its simply that in both my personal and work life most people I know either own an iPhone, or couldn't care less what phone they own as long as its free and makes calls and by extension couldn't care less about apps or media or anything else other than it being cheap!

I can't think of a single person I actually know with an Andriod phone.. If I do they certainly aren't taken by it enough to tell me how good it is.

Or maybe the UK is just a sales blip for them...

 

[Gabriel1964]

I can't think of a single person I actually know with an Andriod phone.. If I do they certainly aren't taken by it enough to tell me how good it is.

Or maybe the UK is just a sales blip for them...

I find this very interesting. Although my company is only small we have a variety of phones in house. The majority are blackberries, we have an iPhone and a couple of Android phones. Interestingly, with a contract renewal looming, we have had more interest in the android options than anything else. The iPhone user has stated they just want rid of the iPhone (it's an old 3GS so nothing special) and fancies either a Samsung Galaxy or an Htc Desire, and one of the blackberry users is looking at the android offerings also. I do use an android phone and intend to get a new android handset when the contract renews. That will make android the prevalent phone os in the company.

I do think it makes a different what areas you work in. We are a tech company, and are primarily a bunch of geeks lol, hence we getting my iPad - my venture into the 5 inch android tablet area was definitely a poorer experience than with this device. I also know a number of android phone users outside work too, again they are all working in techie/geek type areas.

I can't pass comment on whether google has caught up with other smartphone os's with regard to market share, I just find it interesting how everyone can see the phone market differently and all be equally correct within their own demographic.

<waffle mode=off>

 

[Prasius]

Actually - after some thought I know one person with an HTC.. And while they like it, they will admit they would have had an iPhone if it wasn't as expensive.

And there are quite a few Blackberry users. I really liked my blackberry - but it was still a little too orientated towards enterprise use, which I can fully understand is a big advantage over the iPhone for that type of user.

To swing the discussion another way - how much help have Android phones had in the US due to the iPhone only being available on AT&T? (the US market is obviously very large and important - so I think its reasonable to feel it twists the figures a little). It seemed to me that iPhone ownership exploded in the UK once O2 lost their exclusive with Apple - it just seemed that while many people might have wanted an iPhone, they didn't want one enough to pull them away from their network of choice.

This is all obviously just based on general observation and has no figures to back it up, but it's an honest viewpoint trying to not be swayed by my love of Apple

I would also label many of my colleagues (and myself) as geeks - but not in a tech sense! More news, research and reference type geeks - which I think is fair to say the iPhone with particular apps excels at.

 

[broganmc]

To swing the discussion another way - how much help have Android phones had in the US due to the iPhone only being available on AT&T? (the US market is obviously very large and important - so I think its reasonable to feel it twists the figures a little). It seemed to me that iPhone ownership exploded in the UK once O2 lost their exclusive with Apple - it just seemed that while many people might have wanted an iPhone, they didn't want one enough to pull them away from their network of choice.

That is the elephant in the room as we debate this war and one many pundits blithely ignore.

As much as I want a smartphone fees & service keep me away. Apple's marketing iOS in non-cellphone tech direct to consumers was brilliant. It gets people like me (put off by smartphone contracts) into using the OS before I'm up for a good plan.

I'm debating joining a Verizon family plan next year with my fam. Having an iPhone available would make me jump faster. Android has a lot of promise but I just haven't invested in it to differentiate. Instead it is just a smartphone attached to an expensive cellular plan.

The Samsung Galaxy Tab interested me until it was hinted it'll only come out paired with a cellular plan.

 

[gentlefury]

My experience over the years with samsung phones is that they are always ahead of the curve....but not in a good way.

They offered a 5MB camera when vga was standard.....but the phone was total crap.

They offered speech to text before it was dreamed of.....but it was wrong 90% of the time.

They had a small touchscreen alternative to the iPhone shortly after iPhone came out...and it was BUGGY garbage.

They tend to release products on the bleeding edge...without really testing them.

I played with the new Verizon android samsung....I forget what it was called...something with an N. It was pretty choppy and the screen didn't look nearly as good as the incredible or droid x. I think im just going to hold on to my crappy droid until something good (please iPhone please!!!) comes out hopefully. If not iPhone than I will be looking into win7mo because it looks like the first viable contender.

 

[col.bris]

That five year extrapolation is clear misjudgment. Do you really expect Apple to just sit there and do nothing? Apple evolves as every other and they often take the first steps or are the first out of the gate with near perfect products. When they smell competition they just up the tempo.

Does anyone have an idea of what they're up to in the back shops? I expect to see huge jumps in cloud usage, the iPad being a first step. What next?

They better up their game in the "cloud" usage, because they are SERIOUSLY behind pretty much every other mobile OS out there. The fact that I have to plug in to iTunes to accomplish ANY task with the iPad is horrendous. Can't even subscribe to a podcast without going through iTunes on a computer. That is ridiculous.

Apple is on target and will provide cloud usage by the end of the year they are not seriously behind in any way infact they are ahead. This massive server farm is the reason.

Apple’s new data center in Maiden, North Carolina, is due to go into full operation later this year, Apple’s CFO Peter Oppenheimer said in the Q3 conference call. The $1 billion data center is one of the largest ever built, rivaling server farms operated by some of the biggest companies on the internet. Macworld
I believe we will see major changes on how we use all i devices sooner than later once the farm comes on line.