1. Due to the recent site upgrade, the iPadForums (iPF) App will no longer work. The new iPadForums.net website has been designed from the ground up to work perfectly from any mobile, tablet, or desktop computer using the built in internet browser. Create a shortcut to iPadForums.net on your home screen by following these steps: Create an icon for iPadForums.net

Piper Jaffray says Android beats iOS in five years

Discussion in 'iPad General Discussions' started by wrecklass, Sep 7, 2010.

  1. wrecklass
    Offline

    wrecklass iPad Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2010
    Messages:
    387
    Thanks Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Denver
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0
    Piper Jaffray: Android Army’s Victory Over iPhone Inevitable | John Paczkowski | Digital Daily | AllThingsD

    Piper Jaffray analysts say while Nokia and RIM (Blackberry) market share will diminish it is Google's Android that takes over, not Apple's iOS. It sounds like their big reason is because of Apple's single form factor, while Android is being placed on many more varied hardware devices with a wider price range for consumers to choose from.

    I'd personally like to see both companies doing well because competition spurs innovation. But Steve Jobs is reluctant to change his business philosophy when competition comes in. Then again Apple has been happier playing to the smaller but more lucrative markets like BMW.
  2. Gabriel1964
    Offline

    Gabriel1964 iPF Novice

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2010
    Messages:
    27
    Thanks Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    England
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0
    An interesting view, I use both and see a place for both but do believe Android will be a contender, not yet but when it has had a few years to mature I think it has potential.

    Funnily I am typing this on my iPad as I find this to be the device I like best for typing........
  3. muyoso
    Offline

    muyoso iPad Fan

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2010
    Messages:
    203
    Thanks Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0
    Its not going to take that long for Google to dominate. After Android tablets start hitting the market with Gingerbread on them, and the public becomes more and more aware of the bevy of features that Android has that iOS absolutely lacks, Android will be simply taking more and more market share away from Apple.
  4. gentlefury
    Offline

    gentlefury iPad Guru

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2010
    Messages:
    2,623
    Thanks Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0
    That is the exact reason iPhone will thrive and android will fail. iPhone is only one device. If there is a bug it can be fixed easily with and update from apple and everyone is happy. With android updates come from the hardware manufacturer. So, like my droid, when say, motorola releases a new phone they make updates to accommodate the new device and forget the old one even tho the updates take forever for the old one and usually break more than they fix.

    Also most android apps don't work. Even the google ones are extremely buggy and tend to crash a LOT! I personally hate my droid and want to throw it at a wall daily.
  5. wrecklass
    Offline

    wrecklass iPad Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2010
    Messages:
    387
    Thanks Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Denver
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0
    I see what you are saying like happened with the early MacOS, they had fewer and simpler features than all of the PC clones with Windows so the MacOS became the dominant desktop OS.

    Wait...that doesn't sound right.
    Oddly my experience has been the exact opposite. My EVO 4G has been rock solid with heavy use. In the meantime I have several Apps on the iPad that crash very regularly. Safari crashes on me a few times a day. I suspect OS stability is still being worked out on both platforms.
  6. muyoso
    Offline

    muyoso iPad Fan

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2010
    Messages:
    203
    Thanks Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0
    Same. I am having about the same number of crashes on the iPad as on my Windows Mobile phone. Safari and Atomic Browser crashes at LEAST once a day if I try and watch streaming video through them. Android apps are rock solid from my experience with them, and they do a HELL of a lot more than iOS apps, while maybe not looking as pretty. Flash and universal throughout the OS speech to text, I mean its not even a fair comparison.
  7. col.bris
    Offline

    col.bris Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2010
    Messages:
    5,540
    Thanks Received:
    422
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Brisbane , Queensland Australia
    Ratings:
    +460 / 0
    I have never had any crashes in safari and i use it many times a day you must have something else causing it
  8. monkeyboy
    Offline

    monkeyboy iPF Novice

    Joined:
    Jun 20, 2010
    Messages:
    78
    Thanks Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Upstate NY
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0
    In my usage of iPad/Safari I find that it "vanishes" about once every few hours of usage, which I assume means that it crashed because I have to restart it and it has generally lost context. So, yes, I believe Safari crashes pretty often, far more often that my experience with, e.g. Firefox or IE on XP, maybe 1000X more...
  9. Seadog
    Offline

    Seadog Super Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2010
    Messages:
    2,522
    Thanks Received:
    52
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Oklahoma
    Ratings:
    +52 / 0
    Anyone that has suceeded like Apple has, is sure to have those that predict their demise. Since most companies cannot maintain dominence forever, it is a pretty sure bet. Macy's Sears, Ben Franklin and others were surplanted by Wal-Mart. Someday Wal-Mart will be overtaken. But no one knows when. So why not tell people what some of them want to hear and become a pundit. Android may overtake iOs, but who cares. Apple has a lot less market share than MS, but guess who has more profits?
  10. Prasius
    Offline

    Prasius iPad Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2010
    Messages:
    374
    Thanks Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Uk
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0
    Irrelevent I'm afraid - the consumer base for these devices is very different to the early days of home computer use you are talking about.

    Most people don't want huge feature lists and functionality that they will never use. Just because tech-savvy(or just plain nerds) want lots of obscure options does not mean your average consumer wants them. That is one of the reasons Apple has been so successful - and I think one of the reasons the tech press hates them so much.

    This reminds me of bleating of fellow computer geeks when Windows 95 came out, sounding the death of the MS DOS command line. "oh nooes!" they all cried, "what about all the functionality I've lost, all the things I now can't do!" But the death of the MS DOS command line interface was a key moment allowing normal people to buy a computer and actually use it with little specialist knowledge. How many computer users today can create a boot disk? Hell, how many people who read this post on a tech forum can create a boot disk!?

    If you want loads of obscure options and features then buy a device that gives you them - but don't criticise those who know exactly what they want their device to do and buy one that does it with the absolute minimum of hassle - which iOS provides.
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2010
  11. Sonny Burnett
    Offline

    Sonny Burnett iPad Junkie

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Messages:
    752
    Thanks Received:
    2
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Boston, MA
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0
    The android tablets will end up battling with each other and only a handful will survive. It will be similar to what happened to the PC clone builders in the 90's.
  12. muyoso
    Offline

    muyoso iPad Fan

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2010
    Messages:
    203
    Thanks Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0
    And the handful that survive will be AMAZING machines.
  13. gentlefury
    Offline

    gentlefury iPad Guru

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2010
    Messages:
    2,623
    Thanks Received:
    7
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0
    Seriously a flawed argument!

    The reason Mac didn't become a household name right away was because of price!! Apple didn't want to cheap out on experience so they used only high end components that came at a steeper price. At a time that you could get a window POC for $500 the Mac was about $1500 - $2500. Is it because the PC was better? Not by a longshot!! It was cheaper..and that is the consumer mantra...I'll be a broken PC for 1/3 the price, I'll have to replace it 3 times in the time I'll have a Mac....but I don't think about these trivialities...I only think about now! You do realize with the Mac Mini they have become a bit more popular...and now the iMac is down considerably in price (but still considered a luxury item) it has started becoming more and more popular.

    While you may want to judge success by # of sales and that may be accurate to a degree....go ask a Mac user about their experience then go ask a Gateway user.

    9/10 Mac users will say they're mac is awesome....while most gateway users (the ones that spent less than a mac) will say its a piece of crap, but they can check their email and web pages so it does what it needs to do. I'm not including people that put $2000 into their PC because they have quality components...the only weak link in that chain is the OS....which they don't know is the weak link because they haven't used a Mac.

    My mom HATED computers because all she ever used was a PC (the cheapest money can buy too). I kept telling her...get a Mac.....she and my stepdad were not willing to take the plunge into unknown waters.

    I bought her one for xmas last year.....she LOVES it. She is always talking about how great and easy it is to use and how it made her hate using a PC even more.

    Try a Mac before you pass judgement.

    Oh and yes....what I described is EXACTLY why Mac IS such a huge success!

    Oh yeah and BTW...you still haven't mentioned which android apps are ROCK SOLID and you couldn't live without...I would love to try them.
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2010
  14. Mike_73
    Offline

    Mike_73 iPad Fan

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2010
    Messages:
    189
    Thanks Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0
    I went for the iPad because it can do what I needed and expected it to do. I'm a win7 user and never considered a mac before and I probably wouldn't have considered an iPad if there had been more/better alternatives.
    Once other platforms get better, my iPad will be about 2-5 years old and I will consider buying a new device anyway.
    If apple again provides a device that fits my needs, I'll go for it. If it's another company, I'll go for that. I'll make up my mind once it gets time to do so :)
  15. Gabriel1964
    Offline

    Gabriel1964 iPF Novice

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2010
    Messages:
    27
    Thanks Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    England
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0
    Well I am an iPad noobie and I must confess loving it. I have always steered well clear of Apple because of the closed ecosystem. Have 21 PC/Server machines in my office and 1 mac for iPhone app dev. Never really took to the Mac, but I think that is a question of familararity with the OS......

    I am also an Android tablet user (Archos 5 internet tablet) so if anything I am a bit in the anti Apple camp.

    That said I do love my iPad. The Archos is a better media tablet - their codec support, 720p output to a tv etc is just above the iPad at present, however I am finding the iPad a far better tablet experience. The apps are well rounded and polished and I definately have less issues with app crashes on the iPad. I do get a few but not many.

    Will I become a Mac user? Probably not as I develop in C# and .net, my customers are Wintel houses and I have a large investment in Wintel technology.

    Will I stop using my Archos with Android on it? No it is still a great media player and I have hundreds of films encoded to play on it.

    I have, however, been taking my iPad with me everyday, using it both at work and home, and really enjoying the experience. The large screen (in comparison to the Archos), stable, polished apps and user experience has made it work for me. I do wonder if in a year Android will be able to match it.......
  16. wrecklass
    Offline

    wrecklass iPad Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2010
    Messages:
    387
    Thanks Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Denver
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0
    Try it first huh? Nice argument. So let me lay em out for ya kid:

    March 1984, I bought my first Macintosh in what was called the first 100 days. I wrote programming articles for MacUser magazine. I wrote articles on using Macs in numerous other magazines. I developed software for the Mac for years. I interviewed Andy Herzfield and Guy Kawasaki. Look em up if you are too young.

    By 1995 I had a MacPlus, Mac IIc, Mac Duo, and even lugged around an original Mac Portable for months. I oversaw the development of Macintosh software at a fortune 100 company. Until 1995 when I realized the Mac had lost the market and the tools were all on Windows. I reluctantly told my team to go to Windows 95 for our big project that year.

    I've used OS X which is a nice version of Unix, but not what I choose to spend my time developing on these days. Market share does matter.

    So have I passed your excellent test of trying a Macintosh, son?
  17. col.bris
    Offline

    col.bris Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2010
    Messages:
    5,540
    Thanks Received:
    422
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Brisbane , Queensland Australia
    Ratings:
    +460 / 0
    Getting back to the issue the long and short of it is 5 years is a long time in IT frankly no one can predict what will come along and whom will do what. Does it really matter I too started in 1978 with my first Apple 11 at that time no one could even imagine a product like a Macplus. 5 years ago it was blackberry, nokia sony in mobile phones. Now it Is a different line up. Who knows what is coming and yes android is growing as it will be on multiple devices and so is Apple although locked to Apple devices is also growing. The point is its competition and thats healthy. Who is to say Sony or some one else will come out with something totally different to the above.within 5 years that will blow all away so in summary. Smile enjoy what you have it is only the beginning.

    Col.Bris

    Before some one calls me son I am 66 lol
  18. iVan
    Offline

    iVan iPad Ninja

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2010
    Messages:
    1,932
    Thanks Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Near Montréal Québec
    Ratings:
    +6 / 0
    That five year extrapolation is clear misjudgment. Do you really expect Apple to just sit there and do nothing? Apple evolves as every other and they often take the first steps or are the first out of the gate with near perfect products. When they smell competition they just up the tempo.

    Does anyone have an idea of what they're up to in the back shops? I expect to see huge jumps in cloud usage, the iPad being a first step. What next?
  19. col.bris
    Offline

    col.bris Administrator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2010
    Messages:
    5,540
    Thanks Received:
    422
    Trophy Points:
    83
    Location:
    Brisbane , Queensland Australia
    Ratings:
    +460 / 0
    Exactly that is what I was getting at 5 years.....come on no one can predict what will be around by then and as Ivan stated regardless at what others roll out one can guarantee that Apple has a lot more up their sleeve than one can even imagine
  20. wrecklass
    Offline

    wrecklass iPad Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2010
    Messages:
    387
    Thanks Received:
    1
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Denver
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0
    Do I think Apple will stand still for five years? No.

    Do I think Piper Jaffray took that into account? Absolutely.

    They are an investment bank, they make a living telling people what they expect to see happen in the next few years. They help investors figure out where to put their money. No doubt they are occasionally wrong, but I seriously doubt they make predictions like this without giving it a lot of thought. And I am sure they don't make these kinds of predictions without looking at business plans and strategies.

    Given that I was surprised they made such a bold prediction given Apple's meteoric rise in the smartphone market over the last few years. They don't make these kinds of statements for headlines. Headlines don't make money for Investment Banks.

    They give advice to investors.

    Given this analysis, I just found it very interesting and a bit alarming for Apple.

    Bear in mind that in little over a year Google has essentially caught up with Apple on smart phone market share.

    Do you think they took that into account?
    Don't you think that is alarming to Apple?
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2010

Share This Page