What makes me laugh is how everyone is suddenly convinced Flash is dying out just because Steve says so. It isn't, far from it.
Infact, now I have Flash 10.1 on my mobile phone and it works great. It's looking very healthy, and won't be going anywhere for atleast 5 years.
"It seems like lots of work just to watch flash die."
It's not happening, sorry. Not for years, it will be a natural web progression.
Once Frash can actually render videos I will definately install it.