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Lenovo CEO Says Apple Will Not Be Able to Sustain the iPadís Current Dominance

This is a discussion on Lenovo CEO Says Apple Will Not Be Able to Sustain the iPadís Current Dominance within the Apple iPad News forums, part of the Apple iPad Forums category; Only about 2% of China could even afford a "dirt cheap" tablet. Its not the market you think it is. -t...

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  1. #21
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    Only about 2% of China could even afford a "dirt cheap" tablet. Its not the market you think it is.

    -t

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  3. #22
    epb
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    Quote Originally Posted by jsh1120 View Post
    Lenovo is very unlikely to make a serious dent in the mass consumer market that Apple dominates.
    All that namby-pamby "no one's a loser" blatherskite and you wind up agreeing with me.

    I said they wouldn't match Apple because they won't grow in the consumer market. You said they were unlikely to make a serious dent in the mass consumer market. The rest is just a disagreement about terminology, not the analysis.

    The Lenovo exec quoted didn't say they'd carve out a tiny niche and dominate 6% of the total market - he said they would be "right up there with Apple" and become "one of the strongest players in this area."
    You had your entire life to prepare for today.

  4. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewitt View Post
    Only about 2% of China could even afford a "dirt cheap" tablet. Its not the market you think it is.

    -t

    China Overtakes US in PC Sales Earlier Than Expected | PCWorld Business Center

    It's just a matter of time before tablet sales take off in China, too. And there's no reason cheap Lenovo (or other brand) tablets would be limited to sales in China.

  5. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewitt View Post
    Only about 2% of China could even afford a "dirt cheap" tablet. Its not the market you think it is.

    -t
    This happened last year, by the way:

    Chinese Mobile Internet Use Overtakes USA

  6. #25
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    The reason that the mobile infrastructure took off in China is that they did not have a wired infrastructure. The government invested in wireless instead.

    -t

  7. #26
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    Just for reference, I spend several weeks every quarter in China, and have for many years. The picture that's painted to the outside world is very much controlled by the government.

    -t

  8. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewitt View Post
    Just for reference, I spend several weeks every quarter in China, and have for many years. The picture that's painted to the outside world is very much controlled by the government.

    -t
    I'm Chinese and divide time between China and the U.S. I don't need to look at pictures, lol.

  9. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by epb View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by jsh1120 View Post
    Lenovo is very unlikely to make a serious dent in the mass consumer market that Apple dominates.
    All that namby-pamby "no one's a loser" blatherskite and you wind up agreeing with me.

    I said they wouldn't match Apple because they won't grow in the consumer market. You said they were unlikely to make a serious dent in the mass consumer market. The rest is just a disagreement about terminology, not the analysis.

    The Lenovo exec quoted didn't say they'd carve out a tiny niche and dominate 6% of the total market - he said they would be "right up there with Apple" and become "one of the strongest players in this area."
    As noted, those who believe business is a football game are seldom dissuaded that it's somewhat more complex than that.

  10. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by jsh1120 View Post
    As noted, those who believe business is a football game are seldom dissuaded that it's somewhat more complex than that.
    I'm perfectly willing to concede that business is more complex to you than many people, myself included. It's all the more impressive that you could see how right I am in my analysis, given your limits.
    You had your entire life to prepare for today.

  11. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by epb View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by jsh1120 View Post
    As noted, those who believe business is a football game are seldom dissuaded that it's somewhat more complex than that.
    I'm perfectly willing to concede that business is more complex to you than many people, myself included. It's all the more impressive that you could see how right I am in my analysis, given your limits.
    I'll try one last time. The "analysis" that Apple dominates and will continue to dominate the consumer market for tablets defined as devices virtually identical to the iPad hardly qualifies as "analysis." A nine year old would recognize that fact. Touting it as some sort of insight is not much to brag about.

    What such "analysis" ignores is first that niche markets, some quite significant, are likely to grow as tablets with specialized capabilities are introduced. Those devices need not outsell the iPad to be "successful," anymore than KFC must sell more chicken sandwiches than McDonald sells hamburgers to be "successful." Their manufacturers aren't "losers" unless their costs exceed their sales. That's how business works.

    Second, the whole notion of what constitutes the "tablet" market is up for grabs. Is the Nook Color a "tablet" or an eReader? If the Kindle 4 includes a web browser, email support, video, and audio, will it be an Amazon "tablet" or a deluxe eReader?

    Apple will sell between 40 and 5O million iPads in 2011. That is an extraordinary number. But eReader sales in 2011 will top 30 million. And the profit on a $15 book is considerably greater than Apple will generate on a $1 app. Is Amazon a "loser" if its Kindle sales don't top the iPad?

    Finally, as the sales of iPads have skyrocketed, the sales of iPods have gone in the toilet. (Down 20% in Q3 compared to the previous year.) Is Apple a loser because they've cannibalized sales of their own product? Of course not. But only Apple's internal accounting team knows whether, despite the lower price of the iPod, Apple wins or loses in terms of net revenue when a potential iPod buyer opts for an iPad, instead.

    (If you don't understand why, imagine that a $400 iPod costs $250 to manufacture and sell while a $700 iPad costs $625. Then ask yourself whether you'd rather sell an iPod or an iPad.)

    Ultimately, business success depends on more than gross unit sales. Terms like "winners" and "losers" are appropriate when discussing kids' games (even when they're played by adults.) They're less appropriate when evaluating business success where more than the simplest kind of arithmetic is required.


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