Awaiting the next official quarterly report from Apple, reporter Philip Elmer-DeWitt working for Fortune wondered how many iPads did the company managed to sell in Q2 of 2013?
To come up with an answer to the question, he went back to review the information gathered back in January, during which Fortune polled a wide range of Apple analysts – independent and otherwise. They estimated that Apple sold 22.8 million iPads in the last quarter of 2012. When the official results came out, it was revealed that the analysts interviewed were very close in their predictions. Apple sold 22.86 million in the Christmas quarter.
For the quarter ending on the 29th of March, Fortune polled 56 analysts. Out of these 33 are professional Apple analysts while 26 are just doing it out of passion. The pro team arrived at a consensus that Apple will report 18.4 million iPads sold for Q2, while the other team speculated 17.7 million instead.
Brian Blair of Wedge Partner submitted the most negative prediction, expecting total shipments of 13 million iPads. On the other hand, the most generous prediction comes from Stuart Jeffrey of Nomura, who estimated a total of 21.7 million. The estimate counting all 56 predictions accounted for an average number of 18 million iPads.
In order to come up with a prediction, analysts have to take into account a number of factors. First off, the impact of the iPad mini on the sales of the 9 inch iPad. Then they have to take into consideration the fact that Android tablets are becoming more and more powerful and attractive. Also, how’s Apple doing in the business sector? Last but not least, with the next generation iPad on its way in a few months, how many customers are willing to purchase the latest Apple tablet?